Last week, we released the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠). The Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. Among the many insights gleaned by my colleague David Wasserman from that report […] Read more »
What Could Save Democrats From a Midterm Catastrophe?
At a time when very little if anything is “normal” about American politics, we have come to expect the unexpected. While the House looks very, very likely to flip into Republican hands and the Senate more likely than not, what kind of event might keep at least one if not […] Read more »
Are Latinos Really Realigning Toward Republicans?
Once the backbone of the Democratic base, working-class white voters have been migrating toward the Republican Party since the 1960s, largely out of alienation from the Democrats’ liberal stands on cultural and racial issues. Half a century later, those working-class white voters—usually defined as having less than a four-year college […] Read more »
The Republican Advance in the South — and Other Party Registration Trends
Key Points• Party registration can be a lagging indicator of political change, but recent changes in some states are bringing registration more in line with actual voting.• Republicans have taken the voter registration edge in states such as Florida and West Virginia somewhat recently, and Kentucky flipped to them just […] Read more »
In Harvard study of Jan. 6 rioters, top motivation is clear: Trump
Researchers at Harvard University who conducted the largest study yet of what motivated Jan. 6 rioters say the data is clear: The most common responses focused on former President Donald Trump and his lies about the election. The study, which was shared with NBC News ahead of its publication, logged […] Read more »
AARP Poll of 56 Most Competitive Congressional Districts Shows Tight Race for Control of Congress, Voters Focused on Pocketbook Issues
Today, AARP released the findings of a poll of likely voters from the 56 most competitive congressional districts for 2022. The survey found a generic Republican candidate with 4-point advantage over the generic Democratic candidate and that voters age 50 and over make up over 60% of likely voters in […] Read more »