Rep. Liz Cheney’s uphill battle to keep her seat in Wyoming’s GOP primary on Tuesday underscores how Donald Trump’s hold on the Republican Party is tightening even as the former President’s legal challenges are mounting. That dynamic poses stark choices for the thin band of Republican elected officials and voters […] Read more »
New Hampshire: Republican lead on the generic ballot continues to narrow slightly
A new poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) finds Republicans holding a 3-point lead at 46%-43%, down from a generic 6-point advantage in January and a 4-point lead in March. The political environment has remained poor but stable […] Read more »
Why Abortion Has Become a Centerpiece of Democratic TV Ads in 2022
… All across America, Democrats are using abortion as a powerful cudgel in their 2022 television campaigns, paying for an onslaught of ads in House, Senate and governor’s races that show how swiftly abortion politics have shifted since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in late June. With national […] Read more »
All Pain, Whose Gain? The Surprising Implications of a New Legal Theory for Redistricting
Lots of pixels have been spilled on a legal theory once considered fringe, the Independent State Legislature doctrine. This theory threatens to wreak havoc with centuries of election law. Two upcoming Supreme Court redistricting cases cite this doctrine. Both are brought by Republican-controlled legislatures, so you’d think it would be […] Read more »
Why Liz Cheney is likely on her way to a major defeat
… I’m going to cut right to the chase and say that it will take a small miracle for Cheney for her to win Tuesday’s Republican primary for Wyoming’s lone House seat. Statistically improbable things happen, but Cheney has both the polling and history against her. The truth is that […] Read more »
Betting on a GOP House wave? Look at voters’ education first.
The last few weeks have brought Democrats some good news about the 2022 midterms. There have been better poll numbers and surprising election results in some races, such as this week’s close race in a Minnesota House district that went heavily for Donald Trump in 2020. Democrats still face an […] Read more »