Both major U.S. political parties recently held party conferences planning their strategies for the 2018 campaign. The stakes are high: control of the U.S. House of Representatives and, possibly, the U.S. Senate, as well as two-thirds of all state governorships. … Given the political parties’ limited time and resources, to […] Read more »
Why the Gun Issue Has Shifted (It’s Not What You Think)
The gun debate has shifted dramatically. Suddenly, it looks as if the issue will benefit Democrats in November, not Republicans. The reason for the shift doesn’t rest primarily on the intelligence and commitment of the students of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, although many of them have […] Read more »
The States Where Democrats Are Overperforming Most — And Least — In Special Elections
… Special election results so far this cycle are among the clearest portents of a Democratic wave in November. Democrats are beating their usual percentages of the vote not only in special federal elections (i.e., for the U.S. Senate and House), but also in special state legislative elections. … But […] Read more »
How Much Can Primaries Predict the General Election?
The 2018 elections formally begin with the Texas primary on Tuesday, and early voting tallies are already being interpreted as yet another sign of Democratic strength heading into the midterms. … In terms of this year’s midterm elections, there are two ways to look at the primaries: at the national […] Read more »
The lemongrass burrito is the new America. Can either party keep up?
If recent population trends continue at their current pace, it’s likely that by Election Day this November, minorities will constitute the majority of the population in the Congressional District centered on this prospering small city in Orange County about an hour south of Los Angeles. That places the 45th Congressional […] Read more »
How Things Could Go Wrong For Republicans In Mississippi’s New Senate Race
On Monday afternoon, Sen. Thad Cochran, the first Republican in over a century to win a statewide race in Mississippi and the longest-serving member currently in Congress, announced he would resign from office on April 1. The news wasn’t unexpected — Cochran’s worsening health began stirring up rumors of resignation […] Read more »