I have long argued that on the most fundamental level, all elections are choices between continuity and change. The “in” party needs voters to believe that things are going well — or at least improving — while the “out” party needs to sell its message of change. On rare occasions, […] Read more »
Polls show the GOP is now President Trump’s party
President Donald Trump has become more popular since the election. As I wrote last month, his net favorability rating has climbed by more than 8 percentage points since he before the 2016 election. A closer examination of his polling reveals why he’s become more popular: It’s almost all about the […] Read more »
Democratic control of Congress preferred 69%-28%, Harvard youth poll finds
… A new national poll of America’s 18- to 29-year-olds by Harvard’s Institute of Politics (IOP), located at the Kennedy School of Government, finds a marked increase in the number of young Americans who indicate that they will “definitely be voting” in the upcoming midterm Congressional elections. Overall, 37 percent […] Read more »
Trade war threatens the GOP’s firewall in 2018
… The GOP’s dominance of small-town and rural America has become the indisputable geographic foundation of its power in Washington. And the party is counting on continued strength in those areas to contain its losses this fall, particularly after the repeated indications in a number of special and local elections […] Read more »
Evangelicals and Trump
Highly religious Americans are significantly more likely than others to identify as Republicans. This is a robust, continuous facet of American society. … Some of the discussion in contemporary public discourse seems to assume that evangelicals start with a blank slate when they look at the president, making their approval […] Read more »
Rick Scott is the toughest challenger Bill Nelson has faced for Florida Senate, but Nelson’s still a slight favorite
The US Senate race in the key swing state of Florida just got a lot more exciting when Republican Gov. Rick Scott announced that he is running. Scott is not expected to face any major primary competition in his bid to take on Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. … Scott has […] Read more »