Democrats pushed back against historic trends in the 2022 midterms, overcoming broadly negative economic attitudes and Joe Biden’s unpopularity to hold more seats than typical in the face of such headwinds. Their competitiveness came down to a variety of factors — support for abortion rights, negative views of Donald Trump, […] Read more »
The Midterms Are a Shocking Vote of Confidence for Democrats
It is the normal state of affairs for a newly elected president to see his party rebuked decisively in the first midterm election. When the president is presiding over a bad economy — and, despite low unemployment, this very much is one — this tendency becomes something close to an […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton Accepted Her Loss, but a Lot Has Changed Since 2016
America is holding its first coast-to-coast elections since the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol in 2021. That revolt, an attempt to stop the certification of the last presidential election, cost several lives. A lot is at stake. … The need to keep the other party out of government, no matter […] Read more »
Final Forecast: The Senate And Most Of Its Key Races Are Toss-Ups
Just about no part of the 2022 midterms is more uncertain than the race for control of the U.S. Senate. The chamber is split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans,1 but Democrats hold a precarious majority via the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. As a result, a one-seat gain […] Read more »
Final Forecast: Republicans Are Favored To Win The House
Election Day is finally upon us, and we’re “right back where we started from,” to borrow a phrase from Maxine Nightingale. FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast for the U.S. House, which is now final and no longer updating, estimates that Republicans have an 84-in-100 chance of taking control of the chamber. That’s […] Read more »
Pollsters sweat another Election Day reckoning
It wouldn’t be election eve if pollsters weren’t nervous. At a base level, the final surveys in the states that will determine which party controls the Senate next year fall into two camps. Polls from Republican-affiliated firms point to a GOP victory — and perhaps even a romp through some […] Read more »