Economic Anxiety Didn’t Elect Trump and It May Hurt His Party in the Midterms

The 2016 election is almost two years behind us, but arguments over why Donald Trump won haven’t stopped. Because Mr. Trump drew support from white voters with less formal education — the “white working class” — many attributed his victory to Americans’ economic anxiety. But this narrative has obscured the […] Read more »

Bringing About More Compromise in Congress

The almost completely partisan Senate vote on the Supreme Court nomination of Brett Kavanaugh underscores the frequent lack of compromise among our elected representatives in Washington. One Democratic senator voted for Kavanaugh, and one Republican senator voted against Kavanaugh. Otherwise, every elected representative voted their party line. … For years, […] Read more »

Republicans Need a Cold Compress With Less Than One Month to Go

Weather metaphors are often used (and overused) in election analysis, but there’s a better way to describe the Republicans’ challenge in 2018. The GOP is dealing with many headaches as it tries to preserve the Republican congressional majorities. From tension to cluster to migraine, they can vary in frequency and […] Read more »

What’s Behind Democrats’ Shrinking Senate Odds?

Republicans’ chances of keeping the Senate are up to about a 4 in 5 (79 percent), according to the “Classic” version of the FiveThirtyEight forecast. Republicans have always been favored to hold the Senate, but that’s nevertheless a meaningful improvement from recent weeks, when their odds were generally hovering between […] Read more »

The GOP Civil War: The Kavanaugh Confirmation & John McCain

President Donald Trump has chosen to crudely heat up the culture war to get his base to erase the Democratic advantage heading into the midterms. The President, Brett Kavanaugh, and most Senate Republicans have made white men a victim of a dominant PC culture giving greater claims to women and […] Read more »