Donald Trump’s improbable victory and controversial presidency have made the upcoming mid-term elections one of the most closely watched congressional contests in recent times. As Election Day draws near, a plethora of pundits are offering both dire and optimistic forecasts about the Democrat’s chances of retaking the House and Senate. […] Read more »
For a Change, Democrats Seem Set to Equal or Exceed Republicans in Turnout
A wide range of evidence indicates that Democratic voters are poised to vote in numbers unseen in a midterm election in at least a decade. Democrats have largely erased the turnout deficit that hobbled them during the Obama presidency, according to results from more than 50 New York Times Upshot/Siena […] Read more »
A Shift in GOP Fortunes
The most dramatic change over the last six weeks in the midterm election picture is clearly in the Senate, but the House situation has subtly changed as well. Not long ago, the most likely outcome for the Senate was either no net change at all, or a shift of one […] Read more »
A Referendum on Trump or Pelosi?
At the beginning of this cycle, I had conversations with strategists on both sides about the challenges for each party going into 2018. Democrats were worried that Trump had his own ‘brand’ that would make it hard to try and link GOP candidates to the unorthodox and unconventional president. Trying […] Read more »
How Democrats could win back the House on health care, in 4 polls
Health care was arguably the issue that cost Democrats control of Congress back in 2010. But eight years later, evidence is piling up that health care could help Democrats retake the House majority for the first time since then. … So how did this political transition on health care come […] Read more »
The Drive for 25: An updated seat-by-seat analysis of the House
For all the talk of the House generic ballot, President Trump’s approval rating, and other big-picture factors that point to the overall direction of the fight for the House, the battle for the majority comes down to a district-by-district slog. And it is a district-by-district assessment that shows the Democratic […] Read more »