We like to think about electoral contests as noble engagements in which voters pick between qualified candidates. That’s the ideal, right? Two respected community leaders offering themselves for consideration, debating the issues and allowing an informed electorate to choose between them. Uh, why are you laughing? CONT. Philip Bump & […] Read more »
Trump’s Approval Rating Is Up. Republican House Chances Are Down. Does That Make Any Sense?
Just in time for the Nov. 6 election, President Trump is posting some of the best job approval numbers of his presidency. His approval rating is currently 43.1 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight average, the highest it’s been since March 2017. His disapproval rating is 52.0 percent, so let’s not […] Read more »
Many Possible Paths to a House Majority for Democrats, None Guaranteed
Democratic strength in mostly white, well-educated suburbs has stretched the Republican House majority to the breaking point. The good news for Republicans is it’s not clear that their majority has actually broken yet. The good news for Democrats is that the midterm playing field is big and diverse. There are […] Read more »
House Midterm Outlook: Look for a Democratic Flip
Are we still headed for a Democratic wave in the House next month? That all depends on how you define a wave. But one thing is clear: Democrats are still likely to flip the chamber even after all the buzz about a post-Kavanaugh Republican bounce. CONT. Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call Read more »
Battleground House districts remain close in new poll
The contest for control of the House remains close and hard fought, according to a new Washington Post-Schar School poll of the most-contested districts in the country, with Democrats holding a statistically insignificant lead over Republicans. The latest survey shows only a marginal change in the race during October, with […] Read more »
The tables have turned on health care in 2018
No policy decision during former President Barack Obama’s first two years contributed more to the Democratic loss of the House of Representatives in 2010 than the party’s drive to pass the Affordable Care Act. Now, no policy decision in President Trump’s first two years is boosting Democratic hopes of recapturing […] Read more »