Brett Kavanaugh now sits on the Supreme Court, but the contentious battle over his nomination continues to reverberate in the run-up to next month’s midterm elections. A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds that more than six in 10 likely voters say Kavanaugh’s confirmation after facing allegations of sexual assault […] Read more »
The Coming Clashes Between Democrats and Republicans
Win or lose, the Democratic Party has crossed a threshold in the 2018 election, pointing it toward even more explosive conflict with a Republican Party that Donald Trump is recasting around white racial anxiety. For the first time, white men do not constitute a majority of Democratic candidates in races […] Read more »
A dozen days to go: Ratings changes in gubernatorial, House races
The battles for the state governorships are getting more volatile as Election Day nears. We are moving three races, Kansas, Oregon, and South Dakota, to Toss-up. Republican odds of holding the Senate are as good as ever. The playing field continues to expand in the House. CONT. Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s […] Read more »
What I learned from The New York Times
When The New York Times’s Upshot announced it was “live polling” this year’s hottest races, I wasn’t a fan. But my worst fears weren’t realized and I learned some things watching the interviews roll in. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill Read more »
If Democrats win the House, it will be because of women
… If Democrats win the House, as we currently forecast, it will be because of women voters. The Democratic Party is currently benefiting from the largest gender gap on record for a midterm election. In an average of the last five live interview generic congressional ballot polls, Democrats hold a […] Read more »
Ten Rating Changes as Democrats’ Enthusiasm Edge Narrows and Fundraising Advantage Widens
Two weeks out, district-level polls reflect a House battleground gradually polarizing along the lines of the 2016 presidential race. Democrats are maintaining leads over GOP opponents in upscale, Clinton-won “Whole Foods suburbs” of Chicago, Denver, Kansas City, Minneapolis and Northern Virginia. But Republicans’ numbers continue to improve in Trump-won districts […] Read more »