Donald Trump’s Republican opponents seem worried. Many believe GOP voters are ready to move on from the former president, but we all remember the 2016 primary. In that race, Trump had roughly 35 percent of Republican voters behind him, and multiple opponents split an anti-Trump majority. Trump won state after […] Read more »
The most underdiscussed fact of the 2022 election: how historically close it was
… It’s not unusual for any one of these (governorships, House seats or Senate seats) to be narrowly split. After all, we’ve just had two years in which each party has held 50 Senate seats. What is unusual is to have all three be so closely divided. By my count, […] Read more »
GOP stumbles with independents contributed to midterm woes
… Republican House candidates nationwide won the support of 38% of independent voters in last month’s midterm elections, VoteCast showed. That’s far short of the 51% that Democrats scored with the same group in 2018 when they swept into power by picking up 41 seats. The GOP’s lackluster showing among […] Read more »
How the Worst Fears for Democracy Were Averted in 2022
… In Arizona, Michigan and Nevada, Republican primary voters nominated candidates campaigning on Mr. Trump’s election lies for secretary of state, the office that in 40 states oversees the election system. In all three, those candidates lost. The rout eased the immediate concern that strident partisans who embraced conspiracy theories […] Read more »
The Biggest Takeaway from the January 6 Report
The congressional committee investigating the January 6 insurrection delivered a comprehensive and compelling case for the criminal prosecution of Donald Trump and his closest allies for their attempt to overturn the 2020 election. But the committee zoomed in so tightly on the culpability of Trump and his inner circle that […] Read more »
McLaughlin Poll: Trump Is Still the One to Beat
Our most recent poll of 1,000 likely U.S. voters was conducted between Dec. 9-14, 2022. This poll made news last week, because it differs significantly from several media polls released right before ours. Importantly, the poll shows former President Trump strongly leading the GOP field for 2024. In fact, our […] Read more »