Before citizens can actually vote for a presidential candidate, they first have to be comfortable with him or her and this week’s NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll offers some clues about where voters stand on the growing (and growing) 2020 field. The poll shows some serious challenges for President Donald […] Read more »
Mueller Report a 2020 Turning Point
Sunday afternoon’s release of Attorney General William Barr’s summary of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report marks a critical point in the 2020 presidential campaign. Democrats and other critics of President Trump had convinced themselves that Mueller would report a conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russian intelligence operatives and/or that […] Read more »
Subgroup Differences in Trump Approval Mostly Party-Based
It is well-established that President Donald Trump’s ratings are the most politically polarized Gallup has measured for a president. Trump’s support also has shown consistent differences by gender and by race and education, among other characteristics. What has been less clear is whether those subgroup differences mainly reflect the party […] Read more »
Trump’s Opponents Have One Assignment Now
… Trump has demonstrated that there is a substantial audience in the evolving Republican electoral coalition for a message that combines open appeals to white racial resentments and unrelenting attacks on “elites” with an undiluted commitment to the traditional goals of economic and social conservatives—from cutting taxes and eliminating environmental […] Read more »
‘On Paper, the Election Is the Democrats’ to Lose’
With more than a year and a half to go before the 2020 elections, Republicans can take comfort in a number of factors. The result of the Mueller investigation has set back Democratic hopes for an easy victory; the history of presidents running for a second term favors incumbents; and […] Read more »
The Five Wings Of The Republican Party
… We don’t have an official definition of Trumpism, but we’re describing it here in terms of four areas where Trump is somewhat distinct from previous Republican presidents: (i) Anti-institutionalism (his attacks on the Justice Department and the media, for example); (ii) Economic protectionism (his wariness about international trade agreements); […] Read more »