… Oversimplifications aren’t merely errors: They can lead to party strategists and campaign officials making bad calculations about how to win over demographic groups, with serious consequences for election outcomes. And Republicans and Democrats alike shouldn’t forget that there are plenty of non-college-educated white Democrats — and that keeping them […] Read more »
Trump is reading the GOP base wrong on the Affordable Care Act
The only plausible explanation for President Trump’s renewed effort through the courts to do away with the Affordable Care Act, other than muscle memory, is a desire to play to his base despite widely reported misgivings in his own administration and among Republicans in Congress. Reality check: But the Republican […] Read more »
Why Identity Politics Could Be Good Politics For Democrats In 2020
… The case for Democrats both running on populism and centering their electoral strategy around appealing to Midwestern white voters without college degrees is fairly strong. After all, polls show that voters are more aligned with the Democrats on some high-profile economic issues than on some hot-button cultural ones. … […] Read more »
The 2020 Electorate
A durable finding from political science research is that people who self-identify as “Independent” but who admit to leaning towards one party or the other in a follow up question behave very similarly to their partisan counterparts. Increasingly, research is treating these Independent “leaners” as soft partisans and distinguishing “pure” […] Read more »
Age, change and the Democrats’ challenge
Is the Democratic race for president — and possibly even the 2020 general election — going to boil down to a choice of aged front-runners (or incumbent) versus a younger challenger who represents generational change? It’s certainly possible. CONT. Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call Read more »
Most Republicans don’t accept a basic Mueller finding: That Russia tried to interfere in the 2016 election
President Trump’s insistence that he’s been exonerated by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election began hours after the release of Attorney General William P. Barr’s letter outlining what Mueller found. … The Post and our polling partners at the Schar School of […] Read more »