This week the Democratic presidential hopefuls will meet in Detroit for their second set of debates. Next summer the party will hold its nominating convention in Milwaukee. And this spring Democratic front-runner Joe Biden officially kicked off his campaign in Philadelphia. Notice a pattern? Early indications are that the 2020 […] Read more »
Trump campaign sees political advantage in a divisive appeal to working-class white voters
President Trump launched another broadside Saturday on a Democratic political opponent, calling a prominent black congressman’s Baltimore district a “disgusting, rat and rodent infested mess.” … The outburst also undercut efforts by many Republicans over the past two weeks to defend Trump and insist that his earlier attacks were based […] Read more »
Is Trump’s Use Of Identity Politics An Effective Strategy?
From suggesting on his first day as a presidential candidate back in 2015 that Mexico was intentionally sending “rapists” to America to calling last week for several liberal congresswomen of color to “go back” to their countries, President Trump has repeatedly used racial and at times racist language over the […] Read more »
Surprise! Most Republicans and Democrats identify more with their own party than against the other party.
… Many observers now regularly argue that, as Thomas Edsall of the New York Times puts it, what motivates partisan voters is loathing rather than loyalty. For decades, many have treated elections as a choice between the lesser of two evils. And, to be sure, a great deal of outstanding […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Biden holds commanding lead for Democratic nomination
Joe Biden is the lone top tier candidate in the Democratic nomination race, according to the latest Fox News Poll. The former vice president captures 33 percent support among Democratic primary voters (up one point since June). That’s more than double any of the second-tier competitors, which includes Bernie Sanders […] Read more »
The 2020 Congressional Elections: A Very Early Forecast
… In order to assess the outlook for the 2020 House and Senate elections, I used a forecasting model that provides fairly accurate predictions of seat swing based on four factors: the number of seats currently held by the president’s party, the president’s net approval rating in late August or […] Read more »