In the recent Kentucky gubernatorial election, incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin (R) lost by fewer than 5,200 votes to Attorney Gen. Andy Beshear (D) in a state that President Donald Trump (R) carried by about 30 percentage points in 2016. Although the national parties tried their best to turn the race […] Read more »
The Governors: Party Control Now Near Parity
Key Points • Following the 2019 elections, Republicans retain a narrow 26-24 edge in governorships. • But that’s a big shift from mid-2017, when Democrats held just 15. • Gubernatorial races are likelier to defy federal partisanship than House and Senate races. CONT. Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Party control […] Read more »
Analyzing Black Support for President Trump
President Donald Trump recently convened a “Black Voices for Trump” conference in Atlanta. In his speech to those assembled, Trump said: “We’re going to campaign for every last African-American vote in 2020. We’ve done more for African-Americans in three years than the broken Washington establishment has done in more than […] Read more »
PA-1: Democrats fear a suburban Philly congressional race is their ‘biggest recruiting failure in the country’
… GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Middletown Township survived the blue wave in last year’s midterm elections, which wiped out suburban Republicans across the country and delivered the speaker’s gavel to Nancy Pelosi. And while Democrats see Fitzpatrick as eminently beatable in 2020, there’s a problem: A top-tier challenger has […] Read more »
The Trump GOP’s deepening fractures
President Donald Trump has a loyal base of support among the Evangelicals, Observant Catholics, and Tea Party who form 70 percent of the party, and only a few brave elected Republicans are likely to oppose him. But strong anti-Trump fractures run through the remaining blocs of McCain conservatives and moderates, […] Read more »
Partisans seem unlikely to change their minds on impeachment. Independents might.
… Are the open hearings being held by the House changing perceptions of impeachment? Is support for removing Trump from office growing? New polling suggests that the shifts so far have been modest. Importantly, it also suggests that most Americans are intractable on the subject and that the group most […] Read more »