New Year’s Irresolutions and the Democratic Field

This post gives my end of the year thoughts on the Democratic field. I am writing it so we can all look back in a few months and see how wrong it was, and, indeed, many factors provide uncertainty about what the next few months will bring. Certainly many of […] Read more »

Gallup Decade in Review: 2010-2019

A review of Gallup analyses over the past decade reveals that the years from 2010 to 2019 bore witness to key revolutionary changes in public opinion, along with some persistent trends and concerns, as well as striking moments and lasting effects. Here are the changes, issues and moments in public […] Read more »

Biggest Political Moments Of 2019. Key Questions For 2020.

As the year comes to close, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team looks back on the most significant political moments of 2019 and previews the most pressing questions of 2020. They also discuss the Democrats’ debate over health care and the events that led the House to impeach President Trump. FiveThirtyEight Read more »

‘Nothing Less Than a Civil War’: These White Voters on the Far Right See Doom Without Trump

Great American Pizza & Subs, on a highway about 100 miles southeast of Las Vegas, was busier and Trumpier than usual. On any given day it serves “M.A.G.A. Subs” and “Liberty Bell Lasagna.” The “Second Amendment” pizza comes “loaded” with pepperoni and sausage. The dining room is covered in regalia […] Read more »

One Thing About the 2020 Election Is Already Clear

The 2020 presidential election remains very much up for grabs, but one thing already seems clear: It will end with about half of America triumphant, and the other half furious and fearful. Whichever side ultimately prevails in November, red and blue America are diverging along both demographic and geographic lines […] Read more »