… Hard as it may be to believe in the white heat of the moment, when D.C. is consumed with the story, history suggests the greatest likelihood is that it won’t have any discernable impact. Political scientists Lynn Vavreck and John Sides identified 68 events labeled “game changers” in 2012, […] Read more »
Trump Wants Law and Order Front and Center
Unexpectedly, the 2020 presidential campaign is drilling down on petty crime and homelessness. Donald Trump and his Republican allies are reviving law-and-order themes similar to those used effectively by Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew in the late 1960s and early 1970s to demonize racial minorities. To this end, Republicans seek […] Read more »
Reflexive anti-Trumpism, AOC’s shrink-the-tent strategy will cost Democrats in November
For those of you who read this column regularly, you’ve heard me often urge Republicans to put their focus on building a broader majority coalition through a more positive political strategy. It’s the best path to electoral victory instead of relying heavily on negative campaigns. But watching the Democrats over […] Read more »
The two words that could tip the debate on Iran — and help decide the next election
The fierce political debate over President Donald Trump’s decision to order the killing of a top Iranian military leader ultimately may turn on just two words. Republicans cheering Trump’s decision to target Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani have invariably described it as decisive. Democrats criticizing his choice have denounced it […] Read more »
Party Preferences Steady During Trump Era
In 2019, on average, 47% of U.S. adults identified politically as Democrats or said they were independents who leaned toward the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, 42% identified as Republicans or were Republican-leaning independents. Americans’ political leanings have been quite stable since 2016, the year Donald Trump was elected president. The Democratic […] Read more »
How Democrats Can Win Back Obama-Trump Defectors
In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s 2016 election victory, analysts fiercely debated the role of the approximately six million voters who supported President Barack Obama in 2012 but shifted their support to Mr. Trump in 2016. Democratic strategists also had to worry about their future behavior: Was 2016 a temporary […] Read more »