More than two in three Americans (68%) say they have “a great deal” or a “fair amount” of confidence in their state’s governor to make the right economic recommendations — a higher level of confidence than they have for federal leaders, including President Donald Trump (47%) as well as Republican […] Read more »
The Senate: Watch the Top of the Ticket
Key Points• Incumbent senators almost never lose reelection in presidential years when their party’s presidential candidate wins their state.• Democrats need to net four seats to win an outright majority in the Senate and three seats to tie it. In the case of a Senate tie, the vice president casts […] Read more »
The Democrats’ House Polling Lead: Remarkably Steady
Key Points• The Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling has been very consistent over the course of Donald Trump’s presidency.• Democrats also have a significant money edge in the lion’s share of their most vulnerable districts. Money is not everything, but it can help.• We have seven House rating […] Read more »
Trump Reaches Back Into His Old Bag of Populist Tricks
President Trump has chosen his pandemic re-election strategy. He is set on unifying and reinvigorating the groups that were crucial to his 2016 victory: racially resentful whites, evangelical Christians, gun activists, anti-vaxxers and wealthy conservatives. Tying his re-election to the growing anti-lockdown movement, Trump is encouraging a resurgence of what […] Read more »
The fight for the Senate: A pinkie on the scale for Democrats?
Last September, I wrote in this space that small developments had given Democrats “some reason for optimism about next year’s fight for the Senate.” But I also noted the party would “need an upset or two to win control of the chamber next November.” More than seven months later, circumstances […] Read more »
Trump, Head of Government, Leans Into Antigovernment Message
First he was the self-described “wartime president.” Then he trumpeted the “total” authority of the federal government. But in the past few days, President Trump has nurtured protests against state-issued stay-at-home orders aimed at curtailing the spread of the coronavirus. … Now, with Mr. Trump’s poll numbers falling after a […] Read more »