The first phase of the 2024 presidential primary season is officially underway, bringing with it a cavalcade of early polling designed to answer a seemingly basic question: whether President Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump, have the support of their respective parties. That topic, though, is more complicated than […] Read more »
The Contradictions of Ron DeSantis
Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida hasn’t officially decided whether he’ll seek the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. But already the contradictions are sharpening between his prospective general-election strengths and his emerging strategy to win the Republican primaries. Many of DeSantis’s boosters are drawn to him as a potential Republican nominee because […] Read more »
Both White and Nonwhite Democrats are Moving Left
Key Points• One of the big stories of American politics over the past half-century has been a growing ideological divide between Democrats and Republicans.• This has also led to more ideological cohesion within parties, including a dramatic increase among Democrats between 2012 and 2020. Democrats are now as ideologically cohesive […] Read more »
Donald Trump did not win in 2016 because the establishment “split the field”
… Conventional wisdom about the 2016 primary has analysts stipulating that dividing the anti-Trump vote will allow him to win the primary again with plurality support, as he did last time around. After all, he only won 45% of the popular vote in the primary; surely if Ted Cruz, Marco […] Read more »
For Haley, the horse race is just getting started
We are still about a year out from anyone voting in any 2024 presidential primaries, but primary-poll-a-palooza is well underway. … But basing one’s assessment of what could happen on horse-race polls now is folly. Anyone following horse-race polls now is basically like a cat chasing a laser: You think […] Read more »
The future for the Republican and Democratic parties
Republicans and Democrats alike are expressing concerns about the direction of the parties. Democrats are more optimistic than pessimistic about the future of their party (44% vs 26%), while Republicans are about equally optimistic (38%) and pessimistic (36%) about where their party is headed. Few people, regardless of party identification, […] Read more »