They called it the Crisis of 2020 — an unspecified calamity that “could rival the gravest trials our ancestors have known” and serve as “the next great hinge of history.” It could be an environmental catastrophe, they wrote, a nuclear threat or “some catastrophic failure in the world economy.” That […] Read more »
House Democrats More Trusted on Pandemic Issues
This release features findings from a national online survey of 1,012 registered voters conducted May 21-25, 2020. • Trump’s approval rating on handling health care remains low as Democrats are more trusted on a variety of health metrics related to the pandemic.• Americans have increasingly favorable views of the ACA […] Read more »
How Much Trump Could Help (Or Harm) Down-Ballot Republicans In November
Looking ahead to November, the presidential race could decide more than just who the next president is. It could also determine which party controls the Senate or House or even a state’s legislature. And that’s because of something political science calls the “coattail effect,” which is when the popularity of […] Read more »
Does Partisanship Affect Compliance with Government Recommendations?
… I examine three cases of government vaccine recommendations – Smallpox in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, and measles in 2015. In the first case, the president, George W. Bush, was a Republican. In the latter two, the country was governed by a Democratic administration. Using survey data, I test whether […] Read more »
Why COVID Was Never Going to Produce National Unity
… Many observers have expressed amazement at how quickly the nationwide public health crisis of COVID-19, itself not inherently an ideological or divisive issue, has evolved to conform to the outline of familiar culture-war conflicts. But to the media outlets that now exercise substantial influence over the national Republican Party, […] Read more »
Senate Republicans’ Spending Is Almost Entirely Defensive
Enough of the talk about the possibility of another split between electoral and popular votes for president, which would be the third in 20 years. Here’s a better challenge for 2020 election aficionados: First, if Republicans only hold onto one thing, is it more likely to be the White House […] Read more »