The covid-19-driven economic collapse, upheaval over racial politics in the United States and President Trump’s consistently low popularity ratings have given Democrats an opening to win the presidency and both houses of Congress in 2020. Our prediction, based on economic indicators and presidential approval ratings, provides a simple, albeit early, […] Read more »
Trump could sink the House GOP in suburbia
President Donald Trump’s continuing erosion among well-educated voters looms as perhaps the most imposing headwind to Republican hopes of recapturing the House of Representatives in November — or even avoiding further losses in the chamber. … In recent weeks, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and other party groups have publicly […] Read more »
President Trump is losing support among young white working-class voters
So far in his re-election campaign, President Trump has stubbornly refused to expand his base, playing instead to a brand of populist conservatism that rests on solid support from white working-class voters. But a Pew Research Center survey released at the end of June suggests that voters in this group […] Read more »
The politics of race are shifting, and politicians are struggling to keep pace
Race has been a defining issue in American politics since before the country formally came into existence, a dividing line marked by generations of struggle and conflict. Today, the issue is back at the center of a national debate, this time amid shifting attitudes and heightened expectations that are demanding […] Read more »
Democrats, Biden look to accelerate Southern political shift
From Mississippi retiring its state flag to local governments removing Confederate statues from public spaces, a bipartisan push across the South is chipping away at reminders of the Civil War and Jim Crow segregation. Now, during a national reckoning on racism, Democratic Party leaders want those symbolic changes to become […] Read more »
Trump’s views — bleak about the U.S., rosy about coronavirus — put Republicans on the spot
White House surrogates and GOP lawmakers struggled Sunday to defend President Trump after he spent the Fourth of July holiday weekend denigrating the racial-justice movement galvanized by George Floyd’s killing and playing down a deadly pandemic by claiming that 99% of coronavirus cases are “completely harmless.” … At a time […] Read more »