It may be time to revisit the old axiom from Tip O’Neill, the former Democratic House speaker from Massachusetts, who famously said that all politics are local. These days, as the California recall election showed, most politics are national. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) easily avoided being recalled this past week […] Read more »
Why California’s results are in line with the GOP taking the House in 2022
Democrats crushed Republicans in Tuesday’s California recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom. Newsom’s overwhelming victory left little doubt that California is a deeply blue state, and a Donald Trump-endorsed candidate like Larry Elder doesn’t come close to fitting the bill for the type of Republican the GOP needs to run […] Read more »
Can You Be My Bellwether?
Democrats are happy — and rightly so — to have pulled out a decisive win in the recent California recall. Despite earlier signs of a Democratic enthusiasm gap, Democratic voters turned out in big numbers for this off-year election. Even a dip in President Biden’s job approval ratings didn’t have […] Read more »
Dramatic Partisan Differences On Blame for January 6 Riots
According to new data from PRRI, majorities of Americans say white supremacist groups (59%), former president Donald Trump (56%), and conservative media platforms that spread conspiracy theories and misinformation (55%) shoulder a lot of responsibility for the violent actions of the rioters who took over the U.S. Capitol on January […] Read more »
How the Electorate Changes from Presidential to Midterm Years
Key Points• Midterm electorates are typically whiter and more educated than presidential electorates.• At one time, this sort of change from the presidential to the midterm electorate might have made midterm electorates worse for Democrats. But given changes in the electorate, this midterm turnout pattern may actually aid Democrats, or […] Read more »
The California Recall Was a Warning
Governor Gavin Newsom of California defeated yesterday’s recall election by a large enough margin to squash earlier Republican threats to challenge the results no matter the outcome. But the proliferation of those allegations of voter fraud before the election, including ungrounded claims from former President Donald Trump that the contest […] Read more »