Key Points• Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Jon Tester (D-MT) are outliers in Congress — no other Senate or House member holds a state/district that is more hostile to his or her party at the presidential level than this pair.• Montana and especially West Virginia are deeply Republican at the […] Read more »
Joe Biden Isn’t Popular. That Might Not Matter in 2024.
By almost any historic yardstick, President Joe Biden is beginning the reelection campaign he formally announced today in a vulnerable position. His job-approval rating has consistently come in at 45 percent or less; in several recent high-quality national polls, it has dipped closer to 40 percent. In surveys, three-fourths or […] Read more »
Share of Republicans identifying as Trump supporters ticks up after indictment, poll finds
The latest national NBC News poll not only shows former President Donald Trump leading the early 2024 Republican race for president, and having nearly 70% of GOP primary voters standing behind him after his recent arrest and arraignment. It also finds the share of Republican respondents who identify more as […] Read more »
The enormous numbers behind DeSantis’ fight with Disney
In a world where politicians often fight to win big employers and keep them happy, it’s both unique and odd for a sitting Republican governor to go to war with a business crucial to his state’s economic well-being … on the eve of a potential presidential campaign. The feud between […] Read more »
Republicans: Your problem with youth isn’t what you think it is
Unlike any time I recall in the 20-plus years I have studied the youth vote, elements within both parties recognize that Gen Z and young millennials are a political force. Democrats know they cannot build a winning coalition without optimizing the youth vote; Republicans are warming to the idea they […] Read more »
Over Before It Began?
Based on the chatter in Washington, the race for the Republican nomination is already over. Former President Donald Trump, who looked vulnerable in the immediate aftermath of the 2022 midterms, has regained his footing in spite of (or thanks to) an indictment and more potential legal fallout in the coming […] Read more »