Leaning Into State Trends: The Midwest and Interior West

Key Points• Both the Midwest and Interior West have states that Joe Biden carried by less than his popular vote margin in 2020.• In the Midwest, Michigan and Wisconsin will likely be prime battlegrounds states next year, although Michigan seems a harder lift for Republicans.• In the Interior West, Arizona’s […] Read more »

Can Biden Win Over the ‘Meh’ Voters Again in 2024?

For the first time in memory, low approval ratings of a sitting president didn’t cause a disaster for his party in a midterm election. Many Democratic candidates in 2022 succeeded in winning over voters who “somewhat” disapproved of Biden — a group I dubbed last fall as the ‘meh’ voters. […] Read more »

More green investment hasn’t softened red resistance on climate

Even as billions of dollars in new clean energy investments surge into Republican leaning communities around the country, state and federal GOP officials are hardening their resistance to efforts to reduce the nation’s reliance on fossil fuels. That stark contrast has dashed a central hope and expectation among environmentalists: the […] Read more »

CBS News poll on how 2024 GOP presidential primary race could be Donald Trump v. Trump fatigue

To the extent the Republican primary is a contest at all right now, it looks like it’s one between Donald Trump and a sentiment one might call “Trump fatigue.” And Trump is winning that matchup easily. Here’s why: MAGA-sounding ideas are widely held in the Republican electorate, an environment that […] Read more »

Don’t Panic About Biden’s Approval Ratings

In the wake of President Biden’s announcement that he will seek re-election, there have been many stories assessing his chances of winning. Most if not all of these stories point to Biden’s low approval ratings as a danger sign, as they are well below the ratings of presidents in previous […] Read more »

How bad is it for Ron DeSantis? He’s polling at RFK Jr.’s level

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has spent the past few months running to the right ahead of his expected entry into the 2024 Republican presidential primary campaign. From signing into law a six-week abortion ban to fighting with Disney, the governor has focused on satisfying his party’s conservative base. So far […] Read more »