Key Points• As we head into a once-a-decade redistricting cycle, we analyzed which states have one party that is currently overperforming in its House delegation compared to that party’s share of the 2020 presidential vote.• Overall, the GOP has notched notable overperformances in 19 medium-to-large-sized states, compared to 11 for […] Read more »
Redistricting Holds Key to House Majority
It’s hard to remember a time when conventional wisdom about the outcome of the midterm elections was this hardened this early in the cycle. Even folks who don’t pay particularly close attention to House elections feel comfortable giving Republicans a significant advantage in winning control of the body next year. […] Read more »
House Republicans have two critical advantages in 2022
… We live in an era of bitter, closely divided elections. And in 2022, Republicans have two advantages that might soon give them the edge in the House. The Republicans’ first advantage: The other party holds the White House. If Biden follows the path of other recent presidents, he’ll spend […] Read more »
Democrats Increasingly Say American Democracy Is Sliding Toward Minority Rule
The American political tradition enshrines majority rule, with rights for the minority. But some wonder whether the United States is sliding toward minority rule. More and more Democrats are saying the system is out of whack. Twice in the last 20 years, their presidential candidate got more votes but lost […] Read more »
Differential Privacy and the Upcoming Process of Redistricting
Key Points• The U.S. Census Bureau is required by law to protect the confidentiality of census respondents.• The bureau is using a new method called “differential privacy” as part of the 2020 census to fuzz up the data in order to prevent individual respondents from being potentially identified.• However, the […] Read more »
Playing Devil’s Advocate on the Midterms
It may well be easier for a hard-core partisan to observe an election campaign than someone else. After all, passionate Republicans and Democrats often blissfully ignore any potential danger signs for their side, at least until Election Night. Someone without a dog in the fight may be more likely to […] Read more »