Key Points• With some key national factors seemingly in their favor, Republicans could win a healthy majority in the House in 2022 — perhaps even their biggest in nearly a century.• However, compared to past Republican midterm wave cycles, specifically 1994 and 2010, Republicans probably have less room for growth.• […] Read more »
The Holiday Redistricting Flurry
Key Points• There was a flurry of redistricting activity over the holidays, with 7 additional states finalizing their congressional maps.• Republicans are up a little overall in the roughly 2/3rds of completed districts, while Democrats would have to sweep the Toss-ups — a very difficult task — just to achieve […] Read more »
2022 House Overview: Still a GOP Advantage, but Redistricting Looks Like a Wash
The surprising good news for Democrats: there are on track to be a few more Biden-won districts after redistricting than there are now — producing a congressional map slightly less biased in the GOP’s favor than the last decade’s. The bad news for Democrats: if President Biden’s approval ratings are […] Read more »
‘A hell of a year’: GOP eyes big 2022, but weaknesses remain
This time last year, the Republican Party was hitting bottom. … What a difference 12 months make. Entering a pivotal election year, a resurgent GOP is poised to reclaim one, if not both, chambers of Congress and retain its lock on dozens of state legislatures and governor’s offices. While victory […] Read more »
A Tale of Two Midwestern Gerrymanders: Illinois and Ohio
Key Points• Gerrymanders by Democrats in Illinois and Republicans in Ohio seek to build upon their dominance of their respective states.• The Ohio Supreme Court could intervene against the GOP gerrymander there, which perhaps helps explain why Republicans were not as aggressive as they could have been, even though Republicans […] Read more »
The Biggest Victim in 2021 Redistricting So Far: Competition
Heading into Thanksgiving, new congressional maps have either passed or are awaiting signature in 20 states — almost half of the 44 states with two or more seats. And although Republicans are poised for modest mapping gains, the most dramatic trend is anti-competitive. … Overall, competitive seats are on track […] Read more »