A prospective general election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton could significantly alter what states are in play this fall and heighten more than in any recent election the racial, class and gender divisions within the national electorate. After successive campaigns in which President Obama expanded the Democrats’ electoral map […] Read more »
As Hillary Clinton Sweeps States, One Group Resists: White Men
White men narrowly backed Hillary Clinton in her 2008 race for president, but they are resisting her candidacy this time around in major battleground states, rattling some Democrats about her general-election strategy. … “Her most serious relationship problem is with white men, on a policy issue front but also stylistically, […] Read more »
The Future of the Republican Party Rests With Donald Trump
President Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court Wednesday underscores how closely the Republican Party’s future influence over every lever of federal power is now bound to the volatile instincts of Donald J. Trump. … The risks to the GOP if Trump wins its nomination but then falters […] Read more »
Will the Democrats Ever Face an African-American Revolt?
An insurrection now threatens the future of the Republican Party — an insurrection of white working class voters who have been among the party’s most loyal supporters since the civil rights movement of the 1960s. These men and women felt that they lacked an effective political voice, until they heard […] Read more »
A Situation in Which Donald Trump Wins the White House
… The number of white voters Mr. Trump attracts keeps shrinking as a share of the electorate, while the number of nonwhite voters he repels keeps growing, a pattern that helped President Obama retain the White House. Yet few political trends continue in a straight line. Some Democrats have begun […] Read more »
The Roots of Trumpismo: Populism and Pushback
A reality-TV-star billionaire businessman tears up the rules and vaults to the brink of the Republican nomination for president, begging the political question of the year: What is support for Donald Trump all about? The answer, according to statistical analysis of an array of possible explanations tested in the latest […] Read more »