… Here at The Times’s polling department, we often try to assess the state of race relations and discrimination in the United States. It’s a difficult task because conversations about race often rely on coded language or careful discussion, which means there are certain things we can know through surveys, […] Read more »
The Real ‘Trump Effect’ for Young Latinos
… The disaffection and distrust evident in so much of the American electorate festers with special ferocity among young Latinos, the fastest growing segment of the American electorate. Looking at them we can see what this campaign is doing to all of us. The laws of physics, if not elections, […] Read more »
Racial prejudice, not populism or authoritarianism, predicts support for Trump over Clinton
… Unlike previous work that looked at how Trump supporters greatly differed from supporters of his fellow Republicans, authoritarianism doesn’t seem to predict much of the difference in support for Trump and Clinton. … That’s true for populism as well: Trump supporters are only slightly more populist than Clinton supporters. […] Read more »
In a Trump-Clinton match-up, racial prejudice makes a striking difference
Attitudes about racial and ethnic groups helped fuel Donald Trump’s apparent victory in the Republican presidential primary. … Voting in presidential general elections are consistently shaped by factors, most notably party identification and the incumbent president’s job performance, that could potentially overwhelm other considerations. We can gain some early insights […] Read more »
The Parties Invert
Even from its first flurries, it’s already clear that a presidential race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will radically accelerate the ongoing transformation in the identity of the two major political parties. One of the key trends in modern American politics is what I’ve called the class inversion—the shift […] Read more »
Trump Taps Into the Anxiety of American White Males
… The polls offer a way of framing the election: as a referendum on how white men see their place in a changing country; and, one layer beneath, on whether they perceive themselves as being joined by women and minorities or rather as being replaced by them. In those parts […] Read more »