There Are More White Voters Than People Think. That’s Good News for Trump.

… New analysis by The Upshot shows that millions more white, older working-class voters went to the polls in 2012 than was found by exit polls on Election Day. This raises the prospect that Mr. Trump has a larger pool of potential voters than generally believed. The wider path may […] Read more »

How Much Will Trump Cost the Republican Party?

… The party uproar over Trump’s charge that Judge Gonzalo Curiel is biased against him because he is “Mexican” dwarfs the unease over any previous Trump comment. … Unease with demographic and cultural change has long rippled through the modern GOP agenda; it helps explain how the party has constructed […] Read more »

Nonviolence, Violence and Voting: The Effects of the 1960s Black Protest Movements on White Attitudes and Voting Behavior

Between 1963 and 1967, American public opinion and policy on issues of race whipsawed from a spike in concern about civil rights to a widespread call for “law and order.” Current scholarship points to the role of elite actors and feelings of group threat but these factors cannot adequately explain […] Read more »

It’s Nativism: Explaining the Drivers of Trump’s Popular Support

… Simply put, it is all about nativism! Indeed, across all methods, the findings are incredibly consistent—those who support Trump are much more likely to hold strong nativist and anti-immigrant beliefs, controlling for other ideological and demographic variables. Most importantly, nativism is the most impactful driver of support for Trump. […] Read more »

The Anti-P.C. Vote

We know that resentment is driving much of Donald Trump’s success — resentment of elites, of the political class, of illegal immigrants, of protesters, of the media — and perhaps most particularly of changes in the demographic makeup of the country that Trump and his followers find unwelcome. Part of […] Read more »