The Economic Pit and the Political Pendulum: Predicting Midterm Elections

We were given the following prompt in July 2022 and asked to write a response: “The Economy, Stupid: Accepted wisdom has it that it’s the economy that matters to voters. Will other issues matter in the upcoming midterm elections, or will it really be all about the economy?” In the […] Read more »

Democrats Buoyed by Abortion and Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds

Even as they struggle to persuade voters that they should be trusted on the economy, Democrats remain unexpectedly competitive in the battle for Congress as the sprint to November’s midterm election begins, a New York Times/Siena College poll has found. The surprising Democratic strength has been bolstered by falling gas […] Read more »

Why Aren’t You Voting in Your Financial Self-Interest?

Why do millions of Americans on both the right and the left ignore their own economic self-interest when they choose which political party to support? Partisan prioritization of cultural and racial issues has, to a notable extent, superseded the economic conflicts that once characterized the nation’s politics, leading to what […] Read more »

Fox News Poll: Inflation, abortion motivating voter turnout

If the 2022 midterm election is about inflation and crime, that helps the GOP. If it’s about the future of American democracy and abortion, that helps the Democrats. The latest Fox News national survey shows those are the four top issues that registered voters are “extremely” concerned about right now: […] Read more »

Texas: Gov. Abbott maintains lead

The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll finds Gov. Greg Abbott sustaining a polling lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, 45%-40%, albeit one that has narrowed as the gubernatorial campaign enters its final and most public phase. … Beyond the top lines of the gubernatorial trial ballot, the poll […] Read more »

Independents will make or break Biden and the Democrats in November

… Anyone who studies election results in depth understands a couple of key points. First, the base will turn out. It always does in both parties. Second, elections are won in the middle. Yet most political strategies, ad buys and messaging center on base issues with a heavy dose of […] Read more »