Earlier this cycle, a seasoned Democratic strategist argued that his party’s success in the midterms wouldn’t be predicated on policy successes but by turning out the 2018/2020 coalition of anti-Trump voters. This strategy, however, of trying to turn the midterms from a referendum on the party in charge to the […] Read more »
Biden’s Approval Ratings: How Much Do they Matter?
… I expect/hope Biden’s numbers will go up in the wake of lower gas prices and a run of important victories. However, his polling swoon this last year has been driven by two factors. Independent voters souring on his leadership and a drop in Democratic support. In 2021, Biden averaged […] Read more »
Biden’s Job Rating Rises to 44%, Highest in a Year
After hitting a record low in July, President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is up six percentage points to 44%, his highest in a year. While this uptick represents a significant improvement on the heels of several policy successes for Biden, he still remains underwater overall, with 53% of Americans […] Read more »
Biden approval surges, rebounds to highest level since May
A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that President Biden’s job-approval rating has shot up 5 percentage points since early August — its largest and most sudden change to date. The president’s disapproval number, meanwhile, has fallen by 3 percentage points. Never before has Biden’s overall rating shifted that much in […] Read more »
Four’s a trend: Democrats are doing much better in special elections since Roe was overturned
A special election, on its own, cannot tell us much about the political environment. Grouped together, special elections can tell a story. And in the case of special elections for the US House since Roe v. Wade was overturned, the story is clear: The national environment has become far more […] Read more »
Growing Evidence Against a Republican Wave
At the beginning of this year’s midterm campaign, analysts and political operatives had every reason to expect a strong Republican showing this November. President Biden’s approval rating was in the low 40s, and the president’s party has a long history of struggling in midterm elections. But as the start of […] Read more »