New CNN polling in two critical Senate battlegrounds finds that Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly holds a narrow lead over Republican challenger Blake Masters, while there is no clear leader in the race in Nevada between Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and her GOP opponent, Adam Laxalt. The Arizona poll […] Read more »
NPR poll shows Biden’s approval rating is up but there are warning signs for Democrats
With just over a month to go in the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats are starting to rally around President Biden, according to the latest NPR/Marist poll. Biden’s approval rating is up to 44%, which marks a third straight month of improvement. He had bottomed out in July at about 36%. […] Read more »
The 2022 Ad Wars
Key Points• To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September.• Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Crime has become a huge focus for Republicans, […] Read more »
The disapproval derby: Biden Democrats vs. Supreme Court Republicans
What makes this midterm election different from every other? Most midterms are about the party in charge. But in this one, two parties count as incumbents: the Democrats who control the White House and Congress, and the Republicans who control the Supreme Court. GOP pollster Whit Ayres called my attention […] Read more »
Democrats are lagging among Black voters, and that could cost them in November
… Black voters tend to be a forgotten part of the discussion about general elections. The reason is simple: They have been one of the most Democratic parts of the electorate for a long time. While Joe Biden in 2020 likely did slightly worse than Hillary Clinton among African Americans, […] Read more »
GOP cuts into Democrats’ lead among Latino voters, new poll shows
Less than six weeks before November’s midterm elections, Democrats lead Republicans by more than 20 points among Latino voters, but that Democratic advantage has declined from previous election cycles, according to a new national NBC News/Telemundo poll of the Latino electorate. The poll also finds Latino voters are essentially divided […] Read more »