“Do they know it’s Christmas?” the musician Bob Geldof once asked. Nearly three decades on, the answer in the United States is that they know perfectly well, but what that means, and how they express it, is in flux. For years, conservatives have warned of a “war on Christmas.” Former […] Read more »
The Biggest Takeaway from the January 6 Report
The congressional committee investigating the January 6 insurrection delivered a comprehensive and compelling case for the criminal prosecution of Donald Trump and his closest allies for their attempt to overturn the 2020 election. But the committee zoomed in so tightly on the culpability of Trump and his inner circle that […] Read more »
McLaughlin Poll: Trump Is Still the One to Beat
Our most recent poll of 1,000 likely U.S. voters was conducted between Dec. 9-14, 2022. This poll made news last week, because it differs significantly from several media polls released right before ours. Importantly, the poll shows former President Trump strongly leading the GOP field for 2024. In fact, our […] Read more »
Will Trump Succeed? Assessing his 2022 record and 2024 chances
Key Points• Donald Trump’s bid for a third Republican presidential nomination opens the 2024 presidential election.• The former president achieved only limited victories in the 2022 national and state elections.• But the structure of the Republican party provides him with many institutional advantages in the nomination race. CONTINUED Gerald Pomper, […] Read more »
What to Watch in 2023
Even as we look ahead to the new year, we can be assured that the political media focus will be trained, as it has for the last five years, on Donald Trump—his continuing legal and political troubles, the ‘reckoning’ within the GOP about the former president’s role in the party’s […] Read more »
The 5 ‘known unknowns’ that will define 2024
The powerful evidence for a possible criminal case that the bipartisan January 6, 2021, congressional committee presented against former President Donald Trump on Monday underscores the biggest uncertainty looming over the approaching 2024 presidential campaign. Many factors that will shape the 2024 contest, of course, remain impossible to know almost […] Read more »