The nascent 2024 presidential campaign seemed to hit a different gear this week with Nikki Haley entering the Republican primary. The former South Carolina governor and onetime United Nations ambassador joins former President Donald Trump as the only major competitors to declare bids for the presidency. Haley’s announcement, and the […] Read more »
The Contradictions of Ron DeSantis
Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida hasn’t officially decided whether he’ll seek the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. But already the contradictions are sharpening between his prospective general-election strengths and his emerging strategy to win the Republican primaries. Many of DeSantis’s boosters are drawn to him as a potential Republican nominee because […] Read more »
Donald Trump did not win in 2016 because the establishment “split the field”
… Conventional wisdom about the 2016 primary has analysts stipulating that dividing the anti-Trump vote will allow him to win the primary again with plurality support, as he did last time around. After all, he only won 45% of the popular vote in the primary; surely if Ted Cruz, Marco […] Read more »
Continuing support for U.S. involvement a year into the war between Russia and Ukraine
A year into Russia’s war with Ukraine, most of the public still thinks the United States should play at least some role in the war effort. However, support for supplying weapons or funds to Ukraine, accepting Ukrainian refugees, or imposing economic sanctions against Russia has declined since last spring. And […] Read more »
For Haley, the horse race is just getting started
We are still about a year out from anyone voting in any 2024 presidential primaries, but primary-poll-a-palooza is well underway. … But basing one’s assessment of what could happen on horse-race polls now is folly. Anyone following horse-race polls now is basically like a cat chasing a laser: You think […] Read more »
The future for the Republican and Democratic parties
Republicans and Democrats alike are expressing concerns about the direction of the parties. Democrats are more optimistic than pessimistic about the future of their party (44% vs 26%), while Republicans are about equally optimistic (38%) and pessimistic (36%) about where their party is headed. Few people, regardless of party identification, […] Read more »