As we saw in 2016 and again in 2020, traditional survey research is finding it harder than it once was to assess presidential elections accurately. Pre-election polls systemically misjudge who is likely to vote, and exit polls conducted as voters leave the voting booths get it wrong as well. Now, […] Read more »
America’s partisan fireworks will be hard for anyone to put out
While July Fourth is the holiday that most directly celebrates Americans’ common heritage, this year it comes as their extreme divides underscore how difficult it has become for any president to set a unified direction for the country. … Taken together, these centrifugal pressures call into question not only the […] Read more »
What’s keeping democracy experts up most at night? An overturned election
Congress is just beginning a new investigation into the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, but the movement behind it remains as active as ever. … There’s no legal avenue for Trump to reverse the 2020 results. But a half-dozen scholars who study democracy and election laws told NBC News […] Read more »
Why America’s Politics Are Stubbornly Fixed, Despite Momentous Changes
… A Pew Research Center study of the 2020 election results released this past week showed exactly what scale of voter movement is possible in the political climate of the Trump era and its immediate aftermath. The electorate is not entirely frozen, but each little shift in one party’s favor […] Read more »
Yes, Democrats are bickering. But Biden’s wish list is gaining traction
As he pursues his $4-trillion domestic spending wish list, President Biden has had a lot more than Republican opposition to contend with. He has found himself squeezed between two wings of his own party: progressives who want the biggest possible expansion of federal programs and moderates like Sen. Joe Manchin […] Read more »
Biden earns high marks for handling the pandemic, but many Republicans resist vaccination
President Biden has earned high marks for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, but the government’s effort to vaccinate as many Americans as possible continues to face hurdles, including resistance among people who identify as Republicans, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. … Today, more than 6 in 10 […] Read more »