Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in pretty much every single national poll. Yet the same polls find that Trump’s supporters are much more enthusiastic about voting for their candidate than Biden’s supporters are voting for theirs. This split is potentially a good sign for Trump because […] Read more »
Trump, Biden and the Myth of ‘But 2016’
… Just as William Faulkner wrote about how Southerners once daydreamed about the moments before Pickett’s Charge, before Gettysburg turned the tide of the Civil War, some activists seem frozen in the post-midnight hours of Nov. 9, 2016, when Mr. Trump won and time — political time — stopped like […] Read more »
Are State Polls Any Better Than They Were in 2016?
To most, Joe Biden’s clear lead in recent state polls suggests that he has the early edge in the race for the presidency. To others, it’s not so meaningful. After all, Hillary Clinton also held a clear lead in the state polls, and yet Donald J. Trump won the election. […] Read more »
Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide When We Reopen
All but a dozen states are in some phase of reopening from COVID-19 related shutdowns, and forecasts of the pandemic’s toll in the U.S. have correspondingly increased death projections due to the virus. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether there is an overarching plan […] Read more »
Biden’s lead is the steadiest on record
… Biden’s advantage is the steadiest in a race with an incumbent running since at least 1944. That could mean it’ll be harder to change the trajectory of the race going forward, though this remains more than close enough that either candidate could easily win. To know this, I went […] Read more »
Senate battleground map shifts during pandemic response
The 2020 election is now less than six months away and in recent weeks the battle for the U.S. Senate seems to have tilted in the Democrats’ favor, according to polls and campaign analysts. The numbers suggest that, as Washington and the states weigh various responses to the coronavirus, Republican […] Read more »