Now that the votes are in and mostly counted, how did we do? We’re looking at our results and those of other pollsters. We’re also talking about how poll products like forecasters and aggregators misled people about the likelihood of a red wave. CONTINUED Poll Hub podcast, Marist Institute for […] Read more »
The Accurate Election Polls That No One Believed
… What is clear is that the polls, such as they were, provided a decent view of what was happening in most of the Senate and gubernatorial races. (The House numbers are still incomplete, but the national outcome also seems on track with what the polls predicted.) A week ago, […] Read more »
Biggest loser of the midterm elections? The media.
… Political journalists were suckered by a wave of Republican junk polls in the closing weeks of the campaign. They were also swayed by some reputable polling organizations that, burned by past failures to capture MAGA voters, overweighted their polls to account for that in ways that simply didn’t make […] Read more »
There’s a 68 in 100 chance you’ll read this article about the audience for FiveThirtyEight-style election predictions
The midterm elections in the United States are today. Who’s leading, and who’s going to win? This is prime season for FiveThirtyEight, The Economist, and others to use their own election prediction systems to try to answer those questions. They build statistical models, drawing heavily on polls and other information, […] Read more »
Final Forecast: The Senate And Most Of Its Key Races Are Toss-Ups
Just about no part of the 2022 midterms is more uncertain than the race for control of the U.S. Senate. The chamber is split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans,1 but Democrats hold a precarious majority via the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. As a result, a one-seat gain […] Read more »
Final Forecast: Republicans Are Favored To Win The House
Election Day is finally upon us, and we’re “right back where we started from,” to borrow a phrase from Maxine Nightingale. FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast for the U.S. House, which is now final and no longer updating, estimates that Republicans have an 84-in-100 chance of taking control of the chamber. That’s […] Read more »