In 2016, the public — particularly Democrats — felt utterly let down by pollsters and election forecasters like Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight. But Silver stood by his model, saying that disappointment was a result of an overly-optimistic reading of his forecast, which had given Trump a 30-percent chance of winning. […] Read more »
This Election, Republicans Should Take Nothing for Granted
Whether you’re a Republican or a Democrat, liberal or conservative, predisposed toward labor or business, your eyes should now be squarely pointed to the races below the presidential level. … For some time, pollsters of all stripes have been seeing that Trump’s political problems were metastasizing and now infecting many […] Read more »
Election 2020: A Fortnight and Five Days Away
Key Points• With 19 days to go before the election, Joe Biden’s lead in the presidential race remains steady, although his national lead is bigger than his leads in the most crucial swing states.• In the Senate, Republicans appear to be getting some traction against Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), although […] Read more »
Epic miscalls and landslides unforeseen: The exceptional catalog of polling failure
Wrong. Underwood Archives/Getty Images W. Joseph Campbell, American University School of Communication The question looms in nearly every U.S. presidential election, even in this year’s race: Could the polls be wrong? If they are, they likely will err in unique fashion. The history of election polling says as much. That […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2020 U.S. Senate Elections Using Presidential Polling Data
Key Points• Senate elections have become increasingly tied to presidential voting results.• This shows up in this year’s polling, as the margins for states’ presidential and Senate races are closely linked.• An analysis of these polling data suggest that Democrats are likely to achieve a net gain of between one […] Read more »
Biden tops 270 in POLITICO’s Election Forecast
Joe Biden has reached 270 electoral votes for the first time since POLITICO’s Election Forecast debuted late last year. In addition to a double-digit national lead, Biden has built a stable advantage in the three Great Lakes States that put Donald Trump over the top in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania and […] Read more »