Less than a week before Election Day, the electorate’s outlook is gloomy. More than 6-in-10 rate economic conditions negatively and only about 2-in-10 think coronavirus is under control in the U.S., according to the latest Fox News national survey of likely voters. In fact, just over half, 51 percent, say […] Read more »
Why Trump needs more than a 2016 polling miss to win
The 2020 election is down to the home stretch. And like most of the year, former Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump nationally and in the swing states that matter. There are some who dismiss the polls because of their perceived inaccuracies in 2016. But while […] Read more »
Trump gets his best poll of the cycle. Here’s how to put it in perspective.
… Let’s start with the poll that has every poll junkie buzzing tonight: the vaunted Des Moines Register/Ann Selzer poll of Iowa. If it’s not President Trump’s best poll of the cycle, I’m not sure what is: Mr. Trump led by seven points, 48 percent to 41 percent, in a […] Read more »
Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016
To borrow from Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, “I’ve seen enough.” No, I don’t know who’s going to win the election. According to our forecast, President Trump still has a chance at a second term: a 10 percent chance, to be more specific. But — even though we’ll still get […] Read more »
The Six Faulty Assumptions on Which the Trump Campaign Rested
Much of the thinking about the outcome of next Tuesday’s election has been binary: Does Joe Biden hang onto his lead in the polls and win, or can President Trump mount a successful comeback, threading the same needle that enabled him to win 30 states with 306 Electoral College votes […] Read more »
Final NPR Electoral Map: Biden Has The Edge, But Trump Retains Narrow Path
The final NPR Electoral College map analysis shows Democrat Joe Biden going into Election Day with the clear edge, while President Trump has a narrow but not impossible path through the states key to winning the presidency. Among states leaning or likely to go in a particular candidate’s direction, Biden […] Read more »