… Conventional wisdom about the 2016 primary has analysts stipulating that dividing the anti-Trump vote will allow him to win the primary again with plurality support, as he did last time around. After all, he only won 45% of the popular vote in the primary; surely if Ted Cruz, Marco […] Read more »
For Haley, the horse race is just getting started
We are still about a year out from anyone voting in any 2024 presidential primaries, but primary-poll-a-palooza is well underway. … But basing one’s assessment of what could happen on horse-race polls now is folly. Anyone following horse-race polls now is basically like a cat chasing a laser: You think […] Read more »
Can any Republican beat Trump or DeSantis in 2024?
Polls show the 2024 Republican primary is a contest between former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and everybody else. The “everybody else” group includes candidates such as former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who look like they’re itching to get into the race despite only polling in the single […] Read more »
The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting
Key Points• Senate races are increasingly converging with presidential partisanship, to the point where the huge overperformances that were so common a decade or two ago have become much less common.• Since 2000, the number of senators who have run more than 10 points ahead of their party’s presidential nominee […] Read more »
Initial Senate Ratings: Democrats Have a Lot of Defending to Do
Key Points• We are rolling out our first ratings of the 2024 Senate map.• Democrats are playing much more defense than Republicans.• Of the current Democratic seats, West Virginia starts as the clearest Republican takeover opportunity, with Arizona, Montana, and Ohio as Toss-ups.• The 11 current Republican seats all start […] Read more »
2024 Governors Races: A First Look
Key Points• North Carolina’s open-seat race is clearly the marquee contest of 2024’s gubernatorial races. It starts as a Toss-up.• The other contests start with clear favorites despite several open seats.• If popular Republican incumbents run for another term, the GOP should be in great shape to hold New Hampshire […] Read more »