… Don’t expect much ticket splitting in the Peachtree State. Putting the Georgia races aside, in every Senate race this year, save the one in Maine, voters chose the same party for president and Senate. In 2016, every single Senate and presidential contest went the same way. Simply put, anyone […] Read more »
What went wrong with polling in 2020
Political polling is under scrutiny once again. While pre-election surveys set expectations of a Democratic landslide, the presidential contest and many Senate and House races came down to the wire instead. In fact, Republicans gained ground in the House. To understand what went wrong, Judy Woodruff talks to pollsters J. […] Read more »
Why Were The Polls Off? Pollsters Have Some Early Theories
… Yes, Joe Biden ended up winning, as forecasters predicted. But polls overestimated his support in multiple swing states — not to mention the fact that Democrats both lost House seats and didn’t win the Senate outright, despite being favored to do the opposite. It will likely be months until […] Read more »
What Pollsters Want You to Know About What Went Wrong
… Public opinion research is a thankless job in the best of times. There are no congratulations for charting the nation’s changing preferences toward a wide range of issues, or for basically predicting the future, as pollsters did, for the most part, prior to the 2018 midterms. But there’s no […] Read more »
Election polls are more accurate if they ask participants how others will vote
People have information on how they’ll vote, but also about how others in their community may vote. AP Photo/Wong Maye-E Mirta Galesic, University of Potsdam and Wändi Bruine de Bruin, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences Most public opinion polls correctly predicted the winning candidate in the 2020 […] Read more »
Senate 2022: An Early Look
Key Points• Democrats may have a better chance of winning the Senate in 2022 than holding the House, even if Democrats lose both Georgia special elections in January.• The president’s party often struggles in midterms, which gives the GOP a generic advantage in the battle for Congress.• The Republicans’ three […] Read more »