Most preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not. These problems led some commentators to argue that “polling is […] Read more »
An Interview with Murray Edelman on the History of the Exit Poll
In this column, survey methodologist Murray Edelman, one of the creators of the “Exit Poll,” speaks with Harvard Data Science Review’s Xiao-Li Meng and Liberty Vittert. The invention of political polling provided one of the most visible and high-stakes roles for the use of sampling in the history of statistics. […] Read more »
What Did Polls Get Right & Wrong in 2020?
Were the polls more accurate than expected this cycle? Why was there a foregone conclusion that they would be “wrong again?” In retrospect, did campaign methodology accurately capture how the voting public felt about the candidates, the economy, the pandemic and lockdowns? Featuring: John Anzalone, ALG Research; Tony Fabrizio, Fabrizio, […] Read more »
Why Was The National Polling Environment So Off In 2020?
Heading into the 2020 election, Democrats were favored to not only capture the presidency but also win back the Senate and retain their sizable majority in the House. Much of that came down to the overall national environment, which appeared to be pretty favorable to Democrats, as they held a […] Read more »
The Four Concentric Circles of Voters
The current political moment reminds me of the story about the guy who had one foot in a pot of boiling water and the other foot in a bucket of ice. On average, he was quite comfortable. Indeed, in politics, we too often focus on averages—the overall numbers—which even if […] Read more »
Moving Past Impeachment: Trump Acquitted (Again)
Key Points• In the second impeachment trial of his presidency, former President Donald Trump was acquitted by the Senate. Seven Republicans joined 50 Democrats in voting to convict Trump.• The sole Republican running for reelection in 2022 who voted to convict Trump was Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) — she has […] Read more »