It may well be easier for a hard-core partisan to observe an election campaign than someone else. After all, passionate Republicans and Democrats often blissfully ignore any potential danger signs for their side, at least until Election Night. Someone without a dog in the fight may be more likely to […] Read more »
Republicans Must Protect Their Brand Ahead of 2022
… Republican leaders and other elected officials in Washington and in many state capitals are projecting great confidence that this election will be a referendum on the incumbent president, rather than on their own actions. Granted, that is the norm, but it doesn’t seem as if many in the Republican […] Read more »
Survey experts have yet to figure out what caused the most significant polling error in 40 years in Trump-Biden race
Biden supporters in Philadelphia celebrate when his win – with a much smaller margin than predicted by polls – was projected by news outlets on Nov. 7, 2020. Chris McGrath/Getty Images W. Joseph Campbell, American University School of Communication More than six months after the astonishing polling embarrassment in the […] Read more »
The House: Democrats Would Have a Tough Slog Even Without Redistricting
Key Points• The reapportionment of House seats and pending redistricting has prevented us from releasing U.S. House ratings so far this cycle.• While Republicans stand to gain from this process, they would be favored to win the House even if the district lines were not changing.• Rating the House races […] Read more »
Ahead of 2022, House Democrats Aim to Fix Their Polling Problem
… For the second presidential cycle in a row, Democrats were stunned by the number of voters who came out in support of Donald J. Trump and his Republican allies down the ballot. This week, the House Democrats’ campaign arm, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, presented the results of an […] Read more »
The Democrats’ 2024 Senate problem
While campaign junkies everywhere are focused on the 2022 midterm elections, I’m already thinking about the fight for the Senate in 2024. Sure, what happens in next year’s congressional elections will impact the future, as will the next presidential contest, the state of the economy and dozens of other unknowns. […] Read more »