Key Points• Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) easily captured the Democratic nomination for governor on Tuesday night, setting up a matchup with businessman Glenn Youngkin (R).• Virginia’s Democratic trend gives McAuliffe an early edge, but it’s common for Virginia gubernatorial races to look a lot different than the previous year’s […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2022 Midterm Election with the Generic Ballot
Key Points• National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections.• The president’s party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each […] Read more »
Writing the Narrative Of the 2022 Midterms
For more years than I would like to think about, a phrase coined by my freshman college English professor has come to my mind. Trying to coax a class into explaining the essence of a particular short story, the professor facetiously asked, “What is its aboutness?” That’s how I often […] Read more »
Why Democrats may defy history and win the 2022 midterms
Democrats have to defy history to hold onto the House in the 2022 midterms. As I’ve noted before, the president’s party almost always loses House seats in the midterms. History, though, is a guide, not a fortune teller. This week’s special election in New Mexico’s 1st congressional district is part […] Read more »
The NM-1 Special: Democrats Hold Serve
Key Points• Democrats turned in an impressive victory in Tuesday night’s special election in NM-1. This comes a month after Republicans scored an impressive performance of their own in the first round of the TX-6 special.• Democratic performance represented an improvement over both Barack Obama and Joe Biden’s showings in […] Read more »
A More Cautious Approach To Special Elections
At this point two years ago, all eyes were on the special election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District. By Election Day on June 20, 2017, more than $55M had been spent in the race to replace former GOP Rep./HHS Secretary Tom Price in this suburban Atlanta district. … Before that, […] Read more »