Key Points• Following another presidential election in which pre-election polls often understated support for Donald Trump, the polling industry is once again trying to figure out what went wrong.• An American Association for Public Opinion Research task force pointed to a lack of education weighting in its post-2016 assessment, but […] Read more »
Redistricting Holds Key to House Majority
It’s hard to remember a time when conventional wisdom about the outcome of the midterm elections was this hardened this early in the cycle. Even folks who don’t pay particularly close attention to House elections feel comfortable giving Republicans a significant advantage in winning control of the body next year. […] Read more »
The New York City Mayoral Primary
Key Points• New York City’s mayors have struggled in their recent efforts to win higher office, but they often become national figures anyway on account of their high-profile position.• Ranked-choice voting as well as the many twists and turns of the race makes it difficult to predict a winner in […] Read more »
Will straight-ticket voting upset the midterm dynamic in battle for Senate?
Political observers all know the party holding the White House tends to fare poorly during the midterm elections. That is why the combination of redistricting and the midterm dynamic clearly benefits House Republicans next year. But reapportionment and redistricting don’t affect the Senate, and more importantly, a recently developing electoral […] Read more »
Like His Predecessors, Trump Suffered Down-Ballot Losses — But the Declines Were Comparatively Modest
Key Points• Like every post-World War II president, Donald Trump witnessed a fall-off in his party’s numbers of U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial, and state legislative seats during his presidency. That said, compared to recent presidents, the erosion on Trump’s watch was more modest than it was for his immediate […] Read more »
House Republicans have two critical advantages in 2022
… We live in an era of bitter, closely divided elections. And in 2022, Republicans have two advantages that might soon give them the edge in the House. The Republicans’ first advantage: The other party holds the White House. If Biden follows the path of other recent presidents, he’ll spend […] Read more »