Polls in the final weeks of the 2020 election campaign were farther off the mark from the election results on average than polls in any election in decades, according to a new task force report released Monday. The analysis, from the American Association for Public Opinion Research, suggests partisan differences […] Read more »
2020 presidential polls suffered worst performance in decades, report says
Public opinion polls in the 2020 presidential election suffered from errors of “unusual magnitude,” the highest in 40 years for surveys estimating the national popular vote and in at least 20 years for state-level polls, according to a study conducted by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR). The […] Read more »
Why the economy could make or break Biden’s presidency
Former President Donald Trump broke the mold when it came to how the economy correlated with election outcomes. More people approved than disapproved of his economic performance, yet his party lost the House in 2018 and the Senate and presidency in 2020. Now with President Joe Biden in the White […] Read more »
I don’t buy that Biden’s 6-month approval rating should comfort Democrats: Silver
538’s Nate Silver breaks down what President Joe Biden’s approval rating 6-months on the job means for Democrats’ narrow majorities in Congress. This Week, ABC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
Democrats See Edge in Early Senate Map as Trump Casts Big Shadow
Six months into the Biden administration, Senate Democrats are expressing a cautious optimism that the party can keep control of the chamber in the 2022 midterm elections, enjoying large fund-raising hauls in marquee races as they plot to exploit Republican retirements in key battlegrounds and a divisive series of unsettled […] Read more »
Social Volatility, Meet Political Volatility
We’ve been buffeted in recent months by the coronavirus pandemic, widespread protests over police violence that often turned into outright civil unrest, and of course, the rampage through the Capitol on Jan. 6. This is truly a unique and unfortunate moment in our nation’s history. But too few seem to […] Read more »