One of the most common questions we got around this time last year was whether there was some way for the then-presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, to be replaced as the nominee by… Andrew Cuomo, the three-term Democratic governor of New York who had become an omnipresent figure in […] Read more »
2022 midterms a referendum on Democrats’ leadership
America remains a deeply divided country during a period of turmoil and political instability. Events since last year’s bitterly fought and close Presidential election have only increased this polarization. Historical patterns suggest that the Republicans are well positioned to do well in the upcoming midterm elections. With only two exceptions […] Read more »
How Long Can Biden’s Approvals Remain Stable?
We know that midterm elections are almost inevitably referenda on the incumbent president. One way to think about it is that in November of a president’s second (or sixth) year in office, voters go to the polls looking to vote for or against that president and, not finding the name, […] Read more »
Chuck ToddCast: What the NBC/WSJ poll got wrong in 2020 and what we’re doing to fix it
After the election, the bipartisan team of pollsters who conduct the national NBC News poll evaluated the poll and its 10,000 interviews and compared the results with actual voters from states’ voter files. Pollsters Bill McInturff, co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies and Jeff Horwitt, Senior Vice President at Hart Research […] Read more »
What the NBC/WSJ poll got wrong in 2020 — and what we are doing to fix it
Political polls of all stripes swung and missed in the 2020 presidential election. In fact, according to a recent American Association for Public Opinion Research report, the cumulative error was the largest in 40 years. That includes the performance of our national NBC News/Wall Street Journal, which showed Joe Biden […] Read more »
2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls
… In October 2019, the Executive Council of AAPOR proactively convened a task force to examine the performance of pre-election polls in the 2020 elections. The Executive Council appointed 19 members to the Task Force on 2020 Pre-Election Polling from industry, nonprofit organizations, media, and academia to ensure a diversity […] Read more »