Key Points• Midterm electorates are typically whiter and more educated than presidential electorates.• At one time, this sort of change from the presidential to the midterm electorate might have made midterm electorates worse for Democrats. But given changes in the electorate, this midterm turnout pattern may actually aid Democrats, or […] Read more »
Notes on the State of Politics: California and Indiana
It is going to take a while to get the final results in the California gubernatorial recall. But we know enough to say that the race was not at all close, and that Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) should not have any trouble winning a second term next year. So as […] Read more »
California Recall: Newsom is in the Driver’s Seat
As we wrote a few weeks back, by the numbers, the California recall effort that culminates tomorrow should have little chance of success. Democrats have a huge registration advantage. Gov. Gavin Newsom is relatively (though not overwhelmingly) popular. The “No” side has a huge cash advantage. The one thing that […] Read more »
Republicans need a historic polling miss to win the California recall
The 2021 California gubernatorial recall election is in the final stretch, and there is a clear trend in the data. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s position (i.e. the “no” option on the recall) is strengthening significantly. While there are a few gubernatorial elections featuring a polling error as large as Newsom’s […] Read more »
The Political Winds May Blow Through California and Virginia This Fall
With our federal races becoming increasingly more parliamentary—9 out of 10 voters simply cast either Democratic or Republican votes up and down the ballot—the direction and velocity of the national political winds are becoming increasingly important. So where do we stand today, on Labor Day, 14 months before the 2022 […] Read more »
How Republicans are set to boost Democratic turnout in 2022
Just as Democrats were starting to watch their chances of maintaining majorities in Congress get washed out to sea with President Joe Biden’s declining job approval ratings, Republicans have handed them at least one, and maybe two, life preservers for the 2022 elections. With the historical trend of midterms and […] Read more »