As we noted in the Crystal Ball last week, the congressional redistricting process is unfolding across the country, to the point where we now have a handful of states with finalized maps — meaning that, barring a successful lawsuit down the line, these states have their maps in place for […] Read more »
Rating change: Virginia governor’s race could drive 2022 narrative
Even though this fall’s election for governor in Virginia is just one race in one state, it will determine the initial narrative of the 2022 midterm elections. Former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe has had a consistent advantage over Republican Glenn Youngkin in the commonwealth, but some Democratic strategists are concerned […] Read more »
Why Democrats should be worried about Virginia’s governor’s race
The state of Virginia is about to provide the clearest preview of what’s to come in the 2022 election. Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin will face off in a marquee gubernatorial race in November. At the same time, all 100 seats in the state’s House of Delegates are […] Read more »
Why California’s results are in line with the GOP taking the House in 2022
Democrats crushed Republicans in Tuesday’s California recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom. Newsom’s overwhelming victory left little doubt that California is a deeply blue state, and a Donald Trump-endorsed candidate like Larry Elder doesn’t come close to fitting the bill for the type of Republican the GOP needs to run […] Read more »
Can You Be My Bellwether?
Democrats are happy — and rightly so — to have pulled out a decisive win in the recent California recall. Despite earlier signs of a Democratic enthusiasm gap, Democratic voters turned out in big numbers for this off-year election. Even a dip in President Biden’s job approval ratings didn’t have […] Read more »
Why a Troubled Polling Industry Whiffed on the California Recall
The political arm of the public-opinion industry famously had a tough election cycle in 2020. Nobody much noticed when polls of primaries went awry after the COVID pandemic struck; we were in unchartered territory when it came to understanding the likelihood to vote or even how to contact voters. But […] Read more »