Next week, Democrats could lose or come close to losing a governor’s race in a state that voted for President Biden by 10 points. So what does that mean for Democrats’ chances to keep control of Congress next year? … While we should be wary of over-interpreting one election, there […] Read more »
Fox News poll aside, Virginia’s gubernatorial race is too close to call
Sometimes, a poll shows a result so stunning that it generates headline on top of headline. That was certainly the case with a Fox News poll released Thursday that showed Republican Glenn Youngkin with an 8-point lead over Democrat Terry McAuliffe in Virginia’s gubernatorial race. But while Youngkin has certainly […] Read more »
How scary are the new Virginia polls for Democrats?
A Virginia governor’s race that was already giving Democrats heartburn is suddenly upping the agita. After polls for weeks showed Republican Glenn Youngkin (R) and former governor Terry McAuliffe (D) effectively tied, a new one released Thursday night by Fox News showed Youngkin ahead by eight points. … By Friday […] Read more »
If Democrats win in Virginia, they should thank Donald Trump
President Joe Biden is not a popular politician at this point in his presidency. This is even true in Virginia, a state he won by 10 points last year, where his net approval rating (approval – disapproval) is under water. Yet in Virginia, and even nationally on the generic congressional […] Read more »
Is a Democratic Wipeout Inevitable?
… The lesson of history is that it is extremely difficult for presidents to translate legislative success in their first year into political success in the midterm elections of their second year. Those early achievements can boost presidents in their reelection bids, but in almost all cases they have not […] Read more »
The Democrats Don’t Appear Doomed, Unless Losing Half the Time Means Doom
… On Friday, the New York Times published a column by liberal journalist Ezra Klein profiling the Democratic political strategist and data analyst David Shor. … We are, of course, currently in a moment of what history tells us is a rare and temporary period of unified Democratic rule, likely […] Read more »