Democrats better hope things are darkest before the dawn because they now face a series of challenges that combine to offer a bleak near-term future for their party. As I argued three weeks ago in this column space, two trends were preparing to collide in Virginia — Democrats’ growing strength […] Read more »
Why Was the New Jersey Gubernatorial Race So Close?
… In New Jersey, Phil Murphy, the incumbent Democrat, beat Jack Ciattarelli, his Republican challenger, and became the first Democrat to win reëlection as the Garden State’s governor in forty-four years. But the result was much closer than expected. … On Election Night this week, the race between Murphy and […] Read more »
Democrats fear political wipeout in next year’s midterms
The results out of Virginia and New Jersey on election night, along with the rejection of progressive ideology in deep-blue jurisdictions across the country, came as a rude awakening for Democrats. While party leaders were already preparing for a difficult midterm election, the scope of Republican gains in suburbanized, Democratic-friendly […] Read more »
Polling Institute director says it may be time to get rid of election polls
Danielle Kurtzleben speaks with Patrick Murray, director of the Polling Institute at Monmouth University, about the future of election polls after their recent failures to predict results. NPR News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
What Democrats and Pollsters Missed in New Jersey One of the state’s top experts gets candid.
So what just happened in New Jersey? After incumbent Democratic governor Phil Murphy scraped his way to reelection by less than two points on Tuesday, the question is top of mind not just in his state but for his party around the country. On one level, the answer is obvious: […] Read more »
Pollster: ‘I blew it.’ Maybe it’s time to get rid of election polls.
I blew it. The final Monmouth University Poll margin did not provide an accurate picture of the state of the governor’s race. So, if you are a Republican who believes the polls cost Ciattarelli an upset victory or a Democrat who feels we lulled your base into complacency, feel free […] Read more »